JJOAN 2007-1-22 19:16
回复 #20 老鬼 的帖子
我被套拉?怎么办?118
精灵旅行者 2007-1-22 20:30
[quote]原帖由 [i]leson6666[/i] 于 2007-1-22 19:33 发表
问题不是这里。而是中国不应该插一脚到亚元里去。东西两德合并之后，拖累了西德的经济，直至现在仍未能完全康复。欧盟出来之后，实际上除了德国法国，其他的几乎是拖后腿的，有人说欧盟其实是乌合之众，这绝对不是没道理的。现 ... [/quote]
:yct56 :yct38 ＬＥＳＯＮ说的很有道理，这态度转变给我们很深刻的思考，好东西老美是不会那么容易转变态度的，中国不参与亚元，小日本是搞不起来的，亚洲中国不参与的事件是不会搞好的．．．．小日本之所以想搞亚元，是由于他政治力量的弱小而有此想法，想当年广场协议就是政治地位微弱而给宰杀，他想搞亚元无非是想借中国这一政治力量，然后背地在使坏，小日本坏又不是今天才坏，早就坏了．．．．但是中国不参与永远也搞不起来．．．．:yct38
alexdeng 2007-1-23 10:52
何志成好像是老在写汇评的那个，反正我是不看滴。:yct04
alexdeng 2007-1-23 12:48
我认为建立亚元的条件根本就不成熟。或许有人希望简单的克隆欧元模式，便可再造一个强势的可与美元抗衡的统一货币。然而欧元是建立在欧洲各国相近的政治形态，经济发展水平以及历史文化的基础上的。即便如此，欧盟各国之间因为发展的不均衡，对于利率的诉求也各不相同，例如最近德国的经济发展强劲，支持升息，而法国，意大利的经济持续疲软，对加息持排斥态度，各国之间的矛盾在加剧。同时各国国内民众对于欧元的反对声也此起彼伏，法国社会党总统候选人罗亚尔就在她的竞选纲领里就对欧央行的权威提出了挑战，声称欧央行应遵守政治决定。目前来看欧元面临一场危机，很多市场人士都看淡欧元的前景，罗杰斯就公开声称欧元将在未来的十五至二十年里消失，将来唯一有实力与美元抗衡的只有人民币。
从亚洲的地缘政治的角度来看，东西亚之间的差异不言自喻。即便是东亚各国之间，作为亚洲最大的两个经济实体，中国和日本，两者无论是从政治利益和经济发展的阶段而言都大为迥异，怎么可能轻易的将自己的命门掌握在对手的手上呢？何况人民币受益于中国国力的快速崛起，本身正逐渐成为国际货币市场上的一股重要力量，完全可以独当一面，中国又何必去趟亚元这趟浑水呢？
alexdeng 2007-1-23 13:12
[quote]原帖由 [i]leson6666[/i] 于 2007-1-23 12:54 发表
罗杰斯甚么时候说过这样的话语？有原话吗？ [/quote]
罗杰斯在韩国首尔接受记者采访时这样说的，你可以用google搜搜看。
alexdeng 2007-1-23 13:17
找到了，这是罗杰斯接受路透社采访的新闻稿
Jim Rogers: Euro will disappear in 15-20 years
The euro will disappear within 20 years because of the inability of member states to stick to the rules underpinning the European Union's single currency, prominent U.S. investor Jim Rogers predicted.
“The euro is not going to survive in my view,” Rogers said in an interview with Reuters in Seoul. “I own the euro, but I don't expect it to be around in 15 to 20 years,” he added.
Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, called the currency used by 12 EU countries a “political” currency, not an economic one. This, he said, would be its undoing.
“Most of the members are not abiding by the terms of the Maastricht Treaty ... Everybody is either changing the rules, or ignoring the rules, or fudging the rules,” he said, referring to the 1992 treaty that led to the creation of the euro.
The U.S. investor, known for his bullish stance on commodities, also pointed to history to back his prediction.
“No currency union has ever survived in history. No free trade pact has survived in history,” he said.
Rogers was in Seoul to give a speech at the Korea Exchange Global Investor Forum.
He stuck to his bearish view on the dollar and even predicted that its days as the world's reserve currency might be numbered.
China's yuan could potentially grow into the world's reserve currency, but only if it becomes freely convertible and if China opens its economy more widely.
“It does have the size and the liquidity and the size of the economy, potentially,” Rogers said, adding that it was the only currency with the chance of supplanting the dollar within 10 to 15 years.
In a wide-ranging interview, Rogers said the United States was headed for a deep recession because of weakness in the housing market and the large debts it has incurred.
“The U.S. is unbelievably leveraged, over-extended financially and economically, so eventually we are bound to have a serious economic setback,” he said.
Rogers urged investors to switch into agricultural products such as wheat or cotton to take advantage of what he sees as the next leg in an unfolding commodities boom. Prices were historically low and supply was failing to catch up with demand.
“If I were looking for new investments in commodities today, I would be looking at agriculture,” he said.
冰火 2007-1-23 22:13
回复 #49 leson6666 的帖子
前辈说的好。而且欧洲的经济，政治，文化，宗教的层次允许合并货币出现。换成亚洲，那简直成天书了，不说最根本的经济差别，只是宗教，文化意识就是个难以逾越的大阻力。
