幕小后 2008-4-8 22:13
Terror not China
[size=4][b]Terror not China
[/b][/size][color=silver][size=2]Mar 27th 2008
From The Economist print edition[/size][/color]
[size=3][b]The next president will still focus on the same problems as Mr Bush. But some of the answers may change[/b]
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IT IS hard to think of a more miserable way of spending your life than running for American president. Dialling for dollars. Hanging out in diners in Iowa and New Hampshire. Glad-handing people you will never meet again. Living on aeroplanes and in hotels. Getting by on four hours' sleep a night. Delivering the same stump speech ad nauseam.
你很难想象出一种比竞选美国总统还要悲惨的生活。不停地打电话募集捐款，周旋于各州举行的聚餐晚宴，热情地与一大群不相识的人握手，尽管再见的机会几乎等于零。如果不是住在酒店里那么一定是因为还在飞机上。每晚的睡眠时间只有短短的4小时。重复着令人作呕一成不变的竞选演说。
And what do you get for all that misery? A heap of trouble. America is bogged down in Iraq, the Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan and Iran is flexing its muscles, Russian nationalism is on the rise once again and China is getting increasingly bolshy. America's problems seem to be multiplying at the same time as its ability to deliver results is waning.
经过了这一切痛苦之后，就算成功当选，你又会得到什么呢？一堆麻烦而已。美国正陷于伊拉克战争的泥沼，塔利班在阿富汗死灰复燃，而伊朗也蠢蠢欲动，俄罗斯的国家主义再次崛起，中国也不再是一味顺从的小朋友。正当美国遇到的麻烦倍增时，它解决问题的能力却在日趋下降。
Russia is becoming increasingly anti-American as well as increasingly autocratic. It is convinced that America is trying to surround it with military bases, worried that NATO is advancing to its borders and determined to become great again. It has resumed the cold-war practice of flying military missions over the North Pole. It has engaged in a cyberwar with Estonia and used its oil and gas supplies to bully its neighbours. It has also shown an increased willingness to thumb its nose at America (for example, by selling military equipment to Syria and Venezuela) and to form anti-American alliances, particularly with China and some oil-rich Central Asian states.
随着俄罗斯的专制氛围越来越浓厚，其国内的反美情绪也愈趋严重。俄罗斯坚信美国通过在俄邻国兴建军事基地的方式，企图对其形成围攻之势，它也担心北约组织积极扩张，最后会逼到自家门口。俄罗斯已下定决心，重振国威，再次迈入世界强国之列。现在，俄罗斯恢复了冷战时期的做法，在北极地区执行例行军事飞行任务。俄罗斯不仅与爱沙尼亚打起了“网络战”，并且以停止石油和天然气供应为筹码要挟邻国。俄罗斯似乎有意藐视美国，挑战美国的忍耐底线（例如，向叙利亚和委内瑞拉售卖军事装备），特别是拉拢中国和其它石油资源丰富的中亚国家，积极建立反美联盟。
At the same time America is getting more anxious about China's growing economic might. Anti-Chinese sentiment in America is already strong. Democrats in Congress are preparing to hammer China over counterfeit goods, product safety and exchange-rate policy. The media have been a-twitter with stories about poisoned pet food, tainted toothpaste and lead-painted toys. America's trade deficit with China has been rising relentlessly (see chart 4). Many critics argue that China is trying to cheat its way to economic success, keeping its currency artificially low to give Chinese products an unfair advantage, creating barriers to keep out American goods and allowing producers to operate largely outside the law.
与此同时，中国迅速增长的经济实力也是让美国感到头痛的一个问题。美国国内的反华情绪已经很严重。国会的民主党议员正准备利用最近涌现的冒牌商品事件，产品安全危机和人民币汇率问题向中国政府施压。媒体对有毒宠物食品，牙膏污染案例和玩具涂料含铅超标事件紧追不舍，大肆报道。美国对中国的贸易逆差增长显著（见图4）。许多批评人士认为，中国为了保证经济建设的成功不惜采用欺骗的手段，使人民币汇率人为地维持在较低水平，这样中国制造的商品就拥有相对优势，但这种优势是不公平的，同时他们还指责中国政府设置进口障碍，将美国造商品拒之门外，但是却允许本国制造商大规模非法经营。
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America's Sinophobia could be magnified by the Beijing Olympics in August. There will be lots of reports on China's breathtaking economic growth, Beijing's stunning new buildings, the $400m national stadium and the efficiency of Beijing's airport. And the Chinese will win lots of gold medals.
美国的“恐华症”将会随着8月在北京举办的奥运会进一步发作。届时，将会有大量关于中国的新闻报道，重点集中于中国经济的迅猛发展，北京那些让人叹为观止的宏伟建筑，造价4亿美元的国家体育场以及北京机场的高效运作。当然，中国人在奥运会上赢得的金牌总数也将不容小觑。
America, in short, will come face to face with a country that might become its greatest rival in the 21st century. Although some of the forecasts are over the top, China's economic growth is certainly remarkable; and economic growth is inevitably accompanied by growing political clout. China has replaced America as the largest source of imports for Europe, Japan and South Korea.
简而言之，美国将要面对的这个国家，很可能成为其在21世纪最主要的竞争对手。虽然许多关于中国的预测都显得言过其实，但是中国经济发展的成就确实举世瞩目。伴随着经济实力的增长，不可能避免的就是政治影响力的扩大。中国已经取代美国成为欧洲，日本和韩国进口商品的最大输出国。
Human-rights activists point to China's abuses at home, its repression of Tibet and its habit of cosying up to nasty regimes in countries such as Iran, Sudan, Burma and Venezuela. Environmentalists say that, by some measures, China is already the world's largest producer of greenhouse gases. Neoconservative hawks reckon that China has been supersizing its defence spending over the past decade (and China itself admitted to a budget increase of 18% this year). But the country is so important that the next American president will have no choice but to do business with it.
人权激进主义分子指责中国在国内践踏人权的行为，对西藏的压制政策以及它对一些“邪恶”政权，比如伊朗，苏丹，缅甸和委内瑞拉政府，采取的宽容态度。环保主义者则认为，以某些标准来说，中国已经成为了世界上温室气体排放量最大的国家。鹰派新保守主义者估计，中国的国防开支在过去10年激增（中国政府也承认今年的国防预算将会增长18%）。但是，对于美国来说，中国实在是太重要了，下一任美国总统别无选择，只能继续与中国的合作伙伴关系。
America's relations with Russia are likely to get even cooler than they are now. The days when people speculated that the twin departures from office of Vladimir Putin and George Bush might help to improve relations have long gone. Mr Putin is determined to hold on to power from whatever post he occupies. Russia is furious about America's ambitions to extend its missile shield. America is furious about the way that Russia uses the superpower's problems in the Middle East to extend its own influence and forge anti-American alliances. Russia's increasing assertiveness is underwritten by the inflated price of oil and a growing nationalism.
美俄之间未来的关系则可能变得比现在还要冷淡。人们原本猜测美俄在现任总统相继离职后，两国关系将会有所缓和，但是这样的日子已经一去不复返。普京总统已坚定地表示，无论他担任何种职务，都将是国家大权的真正掌管者。俄罗斯对美国企图扩充其导弹防御系统覆盖范围的野心暴怒不已。而让美国感到的愤怒的则是，俄罗斯企图利用美在中东地区遇到的麻烦，扩大其在当地的影响力并建立反美联盟。俄罗斯的这种过度自信主要是因为石油价格爆涨和俄国内日益抬头的国家主义势力。
Many foreign-policy analysts argue that the next American president should pay much more attention to Russia and China, as well as to the shift in economic power from the developed to the developing world. But in practice American politics will continue to be dominated by the greater Middle East. This is because American attention is inevitably concentrated on the regions where its troops are fighting, and sometimes dying; because the consequences of a botched policy in that area are so serious; and because the American public is deeply divided about what to do about Iraq and beyond.
许多外交政策分析家认为，下一任美国总统需要对俄罗斯和中国给予更多的关注，同时也要关注经济力量正在由发达国家向发展中国家转移。但是，实际上，美国的政治仍将被大中东地区的形势发展所左右。这是因为，首先，美国的焦点自然是集中于它的军队战斗的地区，更何况每天还有士兵在那里牺牲；其次，美国在当地推行的糟糕的政策已经引起了非常严重的后果；再次，美国民众已经彻底分裂成两派，他们争论着到底是该对伊拉克做些什么，还是干脆把它抛在一边。
Mr Obama or Mrs Clinton will be under huge pressure to wash his or her hands of Iraq. The anti-war left has set clear and ambitious goals for bringing its forces home. It wants to redeploy all 160,000 troops in Iraq within 18 months of the next president taking office, though a few might remain in the region to deal with al-Qaeda. But this is a high-risk strategy. American withdrawal might produce a cascade of problems. The precarious Iraqi state might collapse. The civil war could intensify as various sectarian groups smell victory. Iran could step up its involvement and produce a counter-push from Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states. The redeployed American forces might be too small to deal with terrorism or prevent a regional conflagration. The outflow of refugees might overwhelm fragile states in the region.
奥巴马先生或者克林顿女士要想在伊拉克这个大麻烦上金盆洗手，将不得不承受巨大的压力。左派反战分子已经为撤军制定了清晰而激进的目标。他们希望下任总统在就任后的18个月内能够重新布署全部16万驻伊美军，除了留下一部分对付基地组织。但是，这是一个高风险的战略。美国的撤军可能会制造一堆问题。原本就不稳定的伊拉克政权可能就此崩溃。同时，若让多方的宗派组织因此尝到了胜利的滋味，那么很可能导致伊拉克内战加剧。伊朗也会因此加快干预伊拉克事务的步伐，并制造与沙特阿拉伯和其它逊尼派穆斯林掌管国家的对抗局势。重新布署美军在应对恐怖主义或防止地区冲突方面不会发挥任何作用。反而，汹涌而出的难民潮对本地区内那些原本就脆弱不堪的国家带来致命的冲击。
[b]Redefining victory重新定义“胜利”[/b]
A better approach would be to “define victory down” while rethinking Iraq's role in the “war on terror”. The Bush administration has always insisted that Iraq is the front-line in that war. And in his 2007 state-of-the-union address Mr Bush set a high bar for victory in Iraq: “A democratic Iraq that upholds the rule of law, respects the rights of its people, provides them security and is an ally in the war on terror.”
当我们在重新思考伊拉克在“反恐战争”中所扮演的角色时，一个更好的方法就是“重新定义胜利”。布什政府一直坚持伊拉克是“反恐”战争的最前线。布什总统在2007年发布的国情咨文中对定义伊拉克战争是否取得胜利设置了一个很高的标准：“伊拉克将成为一个法制的，尊重公民权利的民主的国家，不仅为它的人民提供安全保障，同时也是世界反恐战争的同盟。”
A Democratic president's best chance of success would be to redefine what America is trying to do in Iraq rather than bring the troops home as quickly as possible. Carlos Pascual and Kenneth Pollack, of the Brookings Institution, offer a sensible blueprint for a future Iraq stategy that emphasises the importance of containing the spillover from the mess there. They argue that America should keep 50,000-80,000 troops in the country but redeploy them away from population centres. Another 20,000-30,000 should remain in the region to provide logistical support. At the same time America should create buffer zones and safe havens.
作为一个民主党的总统候选人，获得成功的最佳机会就是重新定义美国在伊拉克的行动而不是尽快地把美军从伊拉克撤回。布鲁金斯学会的Carlos Pascual 和 Kenneth Pollack提供了一幅可行的伊拉克未来战略蓝图，强调控制混乱蔓延的重要性。他们认为美国需要在伊拉克远离人口中心区驻扎约5-8万军队。另外2-3万军队则驻守在地区外围负责提供后勤支持。同时，美国应该在周边地区建立军事缓冲区和安全港。
If Mr McCain were to become president, he would also be well advised to restrain his instincts and redefine America's mission in Iraq. He would need to accept that the original justifications for the war—Saddam's weapons of mass destruction and his close ties with al-Qaeda—have proved illusory, that America has wearied of the war and that the American military machine is weakening. Otherwise he would be in danger of becoming the second Republican president in a row to see his administration destroyed by Iraq.
如果麦肯恩当选总统，他也最好克制一下本能并且重新布署美国在伊拉克的任务。他必须接受对这场战争的最初的判断— 萨达姆拥有大规模杀伤性武器，并且与基地组织联系紧密— 已经被证明是虚构的这样一个事实，美国已经厌倦了这场战争，而且美国的军事力量已有削弱的迹象。否则，成为共和党第二位继任总统对于他来说将无异于置身险境，他将亲眼目睹自己的政府因为没有正确处理伊拉克问题而毁于一旦。
The next president could enjoy more room for dramatic initiatives on two related fronts: Iran and Israel-Palestine. Mr Bush's second administration was marked by an intense battle between hawks and doves over Iran. The hawks, led by Mr Cheney, advocated a military strike to disable Iran's suspected nuclear-weapons programme. The doves, led by Ms Rice, argued for strong multinational sanctions to rein in Iran's regional ambitions and dissuade it from proceeding with building a bomb.
下任美国总统将会在两个相关联的阵线享有更多的主动权：伊朗和以巴地区。布什总统第二任政府工作的重点就是鹰派和鸽派成员在伊朗问题上的激烈交锋。切尼领导的鹰派成员，号召对伊朗进行军事打击，以挫败其可能存在的核武计划。而鸽派代表人物赖斯则认为，要以多国制裁的方式钳制伊朗的地区野心，劝阻其停止进行核弹研发。
The National Intelligence Estimate published last December (and representing the considered view of 16 intelligence agencies) concluded that Iran, although it had definitely been working on developing a nuclear bomb, had stopped several years ago. This changed the debate on Iran and all but ruled out a military strike. It also put Mr Cheney and his hardline allies on the defensive. Still, it did not let Iran off the hook.
去年12月公布的国家情报评估报告（代表了16个情报机构综合意见）得到的结论是，伊朗虽然曾经开展了研发核弹的工作，但是几年前已经停止了。这一结论改变了关于伊朗问题的争论并且排除了军事打击的可能。这也让切尼和他的死忠盟友们不得不转入了防守状态。但是，他们不会让伊朗这只煮熟的鸭子飞走的。
The Israeli and French intelligence services cast doubts on the assessment. American hawks pointed out that the CIA has a pretty dismal record of judging threats, and that Iran's peaceful nuclear programme could put the country just a turn of a screw away from getting a bomb. Many European countries remained keen on maintaining sanctions.
以色列和法国的情报机构对此评估报告表示了怀疑。美国的鹰派成员指出CIA在判断是否存在威胁方面的纪录实在是让人不敢恭维，而且，伊朗和平利用核能项目与研发核弹项目也只是一步之遥。许多欧洲国家仍然倾向于维持对伊朗的制裁。
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The next administration might well make significant changes in America's policy towards Iran. Mr Obama talks about the possibility of dealing with the country directly. This, in the best of all possible worlds, could be the basis of a grand bargain in which each side decides to back down a little to avoid an explosive confrontation. The Iranians have sometimes signalled flexibility on Israel, and they deny wanting nuclear weapons. A deal might be possible if America was willing to drop sanctions, forget about “regime change” and recognise Iran's regional security interests. Both countries have certain strategic interests in common, notably preserving a united Iraq under its current Shia-dominated government and maintaining the free flow of Gulf oil to world markets; and both recognise that they have a lot to lose.
下届政府的对伊政策可能做出较大改变。奥巴马先生经常谈到直接与伊朗合作的可能性。这种做法，在所有可能发生的故事里是最圆满的，是与伊朗展开广泛谈判的基础，双方各退一步从而避免爆发正面对抗。伊朗人在对待以色列问题上有时也会释放出留有余地的信号，而且，他们否认寻求发展拥有核武。如果美国愿意取消制裁，不再提“政权变更”并且承认伊朗的地区安全利益，那么仍有一线达成协议的曙光。美伊两国拥有一些共同的战略利益，特别是在维护什叶派统治下的伊拉克的统一，和保证海湾地区的石油在国际市场上的自由流通方面，同时，两国政府都承认，若两国关系继续恶化，造成的损失将非常大。
Diplomatic overtures to Iran might be linked to a renewed push for progress on the Palestinian question. Mr Bush has been unusually resistant to investing political capital in this particular problem. He has also been unusually sympathetic to Israel, even by American standards. But a meeting in Annapolis in November 2007 laid the foundations for renewed diplomacy in the region, and the next president is likely to devote more energy to the problem than Mr Bush has done.
针对伊朗提出的外交建议可能对重新推动巴基斯坦问题进程起作用。布什总统一反常态地拒绝在这个特别问题上作出政治努力。即使以美国的标准来看，他对以色列的支持程度已经非比寻常。2007年11月的安纳波利斯会议为今后制订针对该地区的新外交政策奠定了基调，下任美国总统可能会比布什总统在此问题上花费更多的精力。
That said, the odds are still against strategic breakthroughs on either front. The Israel-Palestine question has frustrated would-be peacemakers for as long as it has been around. And Iran's foreign policy has been defined by hostility to America since the 1979 revolution. The country has a long history both of meddling in the wider region and breaking international rules, and the Americans have found it even harder to deal with since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president.
要想在两条阵线上取得战略性突破的机会还是很渺茫的。自从以巴问题产生以来，它就一直让那些有意缔造地区和平的人感到无比沮丧。伊朗的外交政策自1979革命后，就一直对美国采取仇视态度。这个国家长期以来就喜欢在地区冲突中趟浑水，并且屡次违反国际准则，美国人还发现，自从内贾德当选伊朗总统后，与他们打交道变得越来越难。
The “war on terror” will remain a principal element of American foreign policy. The September 11th attacks were the most traumatic events on American soil since Pearl Harbour, and it seems clear that al-Qaeda and its allies are determined to strike at the American mainland again. No president can afford to give the impression of being soft on al-Qaeda.
“反恐战争”仍将会是美国外交政策的首要元素。911袭击是自珍珠港事件以来，发生在美国本土死伤最惨重的事件，而基地组织和它的盟友们再次袭击美国大陆的可能性也非常大。没有任何一位美国总统愿意冒险，放松针对基地组织的打击力度。
All the same, the Democrats would try to shift the front-line, talking less about “war” and putting more emphasis on non-state actors rather than state sponsors of terrorism. Mr Obama has spoken of “getting out of Iraq and onto the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan”. He has a great deal of support for such a shift from the American national-security establishment and from the wider world.
同样，民主党人士将会努力转移前线焦点，更少提及“战争”这个字眼，而是更多的强调恐怖主义分子是“非国家支持”的行动者，而不是“国家支持”的恐怖主义活动。奥巴马曾经说过“我们应该从伊拉克撤出，转移到阿富汗和巴基斯坦这些正确的战场上来”。他这种尝试改变的想法获得了来自美国国家安全组织和其它国家的广泛支持。
Mr McCain continues to talk about a war against “radical Islam” and the “moral monsters” that it is spawning. He still regards Iraq as the central front in that war. But even he would find himself under intense pressure to change America's policies. Most of the intelligence establishment in Washington, DC, thinks that the real front in the fight against al-Qaeda is Pakistan and Afghanistan, not Iraq. The July 2007 National Intelligence Estimate argues unequivocally that the organisation posing the gravest threat to the United States is al-Qaeda, and that this threat radiates outwards from the organisation's secure hideouts in Pakistan. The Bush administration as a whole is already using a much wider range of instruments to deal with terrorist threats than its earlier rhetoric implied.
麦肯恩则继续谈论反对“激进的伊斯兰教”的战争，并且认为“道德的怪物们”正在开枝散叶。他仍然认为伊拉克是这场战争的核心前线。但是，他也感受到许多要求改变美国现有政策的压力。华盛顿的大部分情报机构认为与基地组织作战的真正的前线应该是在巴基斯坦和阿富汗，而不是伊拉克。2007年7月的国家情报评估报告认为，基地组织，毫无疑问，是对美国安全产生最大威胁的组织，而散播这些威胁的号令则发自隐匿在巴基斯坦某处的安全庇护所。总体上，布什政府应对恐怖主义分子威胁的手段远比它早前暗示的范围大得多。
So for all the problems with Russia and China, the 44th president will probably find himself or herself concentrating on much the same range of problems as the 43rd: Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Israel-Palestine and the broader “war on terror”. The Muslim world is too volatile and the threat from al-Qaeda too immediate for a wholesale shift in the direction of the president's energies.
因此，不仅是美俄美中问题，第44任美国总统会发现和他/她的前任面对的焦点问题将会大致相同：伊拉克问题，伊朗问题，巴基斯坦问题，阿富汗问题，以巴问题和更广泛的“反恐战争”。穆斯林世界局势仍然不稳定，来自基地组织的威胁也依然存在，要想马上完全改变美国新总统努力的方向实在是有些不现实。[/size]
